Monday, November 12, 2018
 U.S. Milk Production Forecasts Drops  

The 2015 and 2016 milk production forecasts reported on the November 10th USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report released were reduced from last month as the dairy herd is expected to decline more rapidly from its second-quarter peak and growth in milk per cow in 2015 remains slower than expected.  Imports are reduced on both a fat and skim-solids basis for both years as imports of milk protein concentrates and casein are expected to be lower.  Exports are reduced for 2015 on weaker butter, cheese and whey sales.  Largely uncompetitive prices are likely to limit growth in export sales of butter and to a lesser extent, cheese in 2016, and fat-based exports are reduced.


Strong domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high butter prices during the remainder of 2015, but supplies are expected to be large, and the price forecast for 2016 is lowered.  Cheese prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 as supplies remain large.  The nonfat dry milk (NDM) price is reduced for 2015 and 2016 as prices move closer to international levels.  Whey prices are unchanged from last month.  Class III prices are lowered for 2015 and 2016 reflecting the lower 2015 cheese price forecasts.  Class IV prices are raised for 2015 due to the stronger forecast butter price which more than offsets the lower NDM price.  However, the 2016 price is lowered as cheese and NDM forecasts are reduced. The all milk price is raised to $17.00 to $17.10 per cwt for 2015 and lowered to $15.95 to $16.85 per cwt for 2016.

Source: USDA

Posted on Thursday, November 12, 2015 (Archive on Thursday, November 19, 2015)
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