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Saturday, December 16, 2017
 Murray Goulburn’s Domino Effect on Australia’s Dairy Industry  

Dairy farmers fear a profit downgrade from Murray Goulburn will lead to widespread cuts to the price they are paid for their milk, even if they don’t supply Australia’s biggest processor.

 

Units in Murray Goulburn’s listed trust have been suspended from trade since Friday while the co-operative revises its earnings outlook in the wake of a deteriorating global dairy market.


Investors are preparing for a substantial profit downgrade when Murray Goulburn emerges from its trading halt on Wednesday. Meanwhile, farmers fear the co-operative will slash the farm gate price, despite vowing to maintain it at $5.60 only two months ago.


If Murray Goulburn cuts the farm gate price, other milk processors are expected to follow, given the co-operative’s position as a price setter in the market and recent comments from its competitors that this season’s price did not reflect global dairy conditions.


 “Murray Goulburn has not just become known as Australia’s biggest milk processor, it has also been known as a price setter in the market and if the milk price is cut to around $5.30 a kilogram it will put many farmers in a loss-making position,” said Morgans analyst Belinda Moore.


Fonterra has maintained its farm gate price at $5.60 a kilogram this season, but the company’s managing director for Oceania, Judith Swales, indicated on Tuesday that could change.


“We are not immune to the global dairy challenges, and have been upfront throughout the season with our suppliers, expressing caution to our farmers to budget conservatively,” Ms Swales said.


“Fonterra is committed to paying a competitive milk price in the Australian market, and with the rapidly changing environment, we will continue to keep our farmers well informed.”


Warrnambool Cheese and Butter (WCB) sent a letter to its suppliers last week, stating it would continue to pay $5.60 a kilogram. But WCB farmers are wondering how long that will be maintained if Murray Goulburn moves.


“If there were to be a step down, it would be pretty horrendous, as it was last time in 2009,” said WCB supplier and third-generation dairy farmer Nick Renyard.


“But a profit downgrade [at Murray Goulburn] is still a profit, and we’re hopeful, the price will be maintained.”


Although the global dairy market has weakened significantly beyond expectations from when Murray Goulburn raised $500 million from its partial float last July, investors are still demanding answers from the co-operative.


Ms Moore said she wanted to know what had changed since the company’s half year financial results, which were posted in late February.


“Yes the season might be a bit worse than expected, yes the Australian dollar is a little bit higher and dairy prices have gone up a bit but still down – but what else has changed?” Ms Moore said.


All those challenges had previously been announced to the market in same breath as the co-operative has maintained its farm gate price is affordable.


If farmers cop a price cut, it couldn’t come at a worse time, with Australia’s top dairy producing areas facing dry conditions and the least amount of grass growth in more than 40 years.


“It’s a horrible season,” said Victorian upper house Liberal MP Simon Ramsay.


“It is worst conditions that we have seen for decades. When you look at farmers who are carting water at Lorne and Apollo Bay you know we have had a dry autumn break.”


But Mr Ramsay, who farms beef at Birregurra in what is known as the golden triangle for dairy production in south-west Victoria, says there is little politicians can do.


“It is a free market,” he said. “Murray Goulburn has indicated that its is moving from low end milk powder to high end powder. But that strategy is going to take some time.”

Source: The Age (Australia)
 


Posted on Thursday, April 28, 2016 (Archive on Thursday, May 05, 2016)
Posted by bholcomb@adpi.org  Contributed by bholcomb@adpi.org
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