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Thursday, December 14, 2017
  GlobalDairyTrade Auction Prices Fall 6.3%  

Prices at the March 7th Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, the fifth sale of 2017, fell 6.3%  to $3,512 per ton following a 3.2% decline previously. There was a 12.4% decline in Whole Milk Powder prices to $2,782 per ton while Skim milk powder prices fell 15.5%. The decline in GDT prices was slightly lower than expected by futures markets which had priced in an 8% decline.

 

The result confirms that Fonterra’s decision to hold their milk price forecast for the current season at $6/kg milksolids (MS) was the right one.


Movements in commodity prices in the later part of the season have a smaller impact on the price farmers are paid for their milk because of the lower volume of product being traded at this time of the year.


Normally at this time of the season the volume of product being offered on GDT starts to fall away but improved milk intakes in recent months mean Fonterra has more product available to sell than previously anticipated. 


AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said farmers will be disappointed with these results. “To see prices falling again before the market has fully recovered will be a disappointment to farmers. While one poor result doesn’t have a huge impact on the milk price it will be difficult for prices to recover quickly while there is surplus product available.”


“Last night’s result shows just how tightly balanced the market is – there just isn’t the depth of demand in the market to absorb any extra product at the moment.”


The NZX Dairy Derivatives market had anticipated a weak GDT result but the prices attained at the auction were even lower than expected. Going into the auction futures market participants had priced in a 8% fall in WMP and a 12% fall in SMP for product supplied by Fonterra. However the results were even weaker than this.


Regular grade WMP for shipping in May traded at US$2,695/t, 14.7% below the price achieved for this grade of product at the previous event.


Medium heat SMP supplied by Fonterra with a May shipping date also failed to lift from its opening price meaning buyers were able to secure this product at US$2,195/t. While that is 15.4% less than what they would have paid a fortnight ago it is still more than the current market price for equivalent product in the European and United States markets.


Milkfat products did a lot better. Demand for butter and anhydrous milkfat (AMF) has been very strong throughout the season driven by dietary trends towards natural products and away from synthetic products such as margarine.


Regular grade AMF was priced at US$5515/t just 0.8% less than at the previous auction, while butter recorded a 2.3% lift in price with unsalted product with a May shipping date making US$4,700/t. 

 

There were 134 participating bidders, with a total of 22,328 tons of product sold. The next event is scheduled for March 21st.

 
Source: GlobalDairyTrade Farmers Weekly

 


Posted on Friday, March 10, 2017 (Archive on Friday, March 17, 2017)
Posted by bholcomb@adpi.org  Contributed by bholcomb@adpi.org
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